Who Will Win Game Of Thrones? A Look At Vegas Betting Odds

One of the biggest television events of 2017 will take place on Sunday, July 16 as the HBO series ‘Game of Thrones’ returns for its 7th season.   Making the ‘GoT’ return all the more interesting is the many questions that viewers expect to see resolved as the extensive cast and complex plotline continues its methodical advance to an ultimate conclusion.  This also makes the show and its storylines an excellent betting opportunity.

Who will win the Game of Thrones? Who will, or will anyone, kill Cersei in Season 7? Who will win the “Clegane Bowl”? Will Drogon be turned into the rumored Ice Dragon?

‘GAME OF THRONES’ SEASON 7 PROPOSITION ODDS

Below are just a few of the proposition betting odds that we’ll be featuring at Sports Betting Experts all week leading up to the ‘Game of Thrones’ season premiere.  To help facilitate the creation and calculation of these odds we’ve done some public opinion surveys and this data provides a great opportunity to explain the oddsmaking process in greater detail.

 

 

GAME OF THRONES FACEBOOK FAN SURVEY RESULTS, BETTING ODDS AND IMPLIED PROBABILITIES COURTESY sportsbettingexperts.com
1000 fans were surveyed on Facebook during the week of July 3, 2017
Question / Prop Bet Votes Percentage Fractional Odds Implied Probability
Who will win the Game of Thrones?
Daenerys 416 41.60% 7/2 22.22%
Jon Snow 347 34.70% 5/1 16.67%
Tyrion 100 10% 25/2 7.41%
Cersei 64 6.40% 35/2 5.41%
Other 48 4.80% N/A N/A
Petyr Baelish 25 2.50% 25/2 7.41%
Who will kill Cersei?
Jaime Lannister 556 55.60% 7/2 22.22%
Arya Stark 270 27% 5/1 16.67%
Daenerys 62 6.20% 15/2 11.76%
Tyrion 55 5.50% 15/1 6.25%
Herself (suicide) 28 2.80% 35/2 5.41%
Other 29 2.90% 25/1 3.85%
Survives Season 7 N/A N/A 2/3 60%
Who will win the Clegane Bowl?
Sandor Clegane (The Hound) 788 78.80% 3/2 40%
Gregor Clegane (The Mountain) 212 21.20% 7/2 22.22%
No Fight N/A N/A 4/7 63.64%
Will Drogon be turned into the rumored Ice Dragon?
Yes 449 44.90% 21/10 32.26%
No 526 52.60% 2/5 71.43%

 

 

WHO WILL WIN THE ‘GAME OF THRONES’

Daenerys Targaryen: +350

Jon Snow: +500

Sansa Stark:  +750

Tyrion Lannister: +1250

Arya Stark: +1250

Petyr Baelish: +1250

Cersei Lannister:  +1750

Gendry: +1750

The Night King:  +1750

Any Child of John Snow: +2100

Bran Stark: +2100

Jaime Lannister: +2100

Prince Aegon Targaryen: +2750

Euron Greyjoy: +3500

Lord Varys: +3500

Jaquen Hghar: +5000

Davos Seaworth:  +5000

Any Sand Snake: +5000

Yara Greyjoy: +5000

Stannis Baratheon: +5000

Theon Greyjoy:  +7500

Samwell Tarly: +7500

Brienne of Tarth: +10000

Bronn: +10000

Field (Any character not listed): +10000

Victarion Greyjoy: +15000

Eddison Tollett: +17500

Character to rule Westeros at end of series

This is the most common ‘Game of Thrones’ bet offered by bookmakers around the world and it’s easy to see why.  Bookies love ‘long term’ bets and this one won’t be resolved until the series ends.   There’s a definitive outcome which is also essential for a well crafted proposition bet.  A poorly worded wager without a clear and decisive result leaves the result open to the interpretation of the bookmaker.  That inevitably means unhappy customers and depending on how it’s handled can hurt the reputation of the book in question.

 

WHO WILL KILL CERSEI LANNISTER

No one (survives Season 7): -150

Jamie Lannister:  +350

Arya Stark: +500

Daenerys Targaryen: +750

Tyrion Lannister: +1500

Herself (Suicide): +1750

Any other character or cause of death: +2500

WHO WILL WIN THE ‘CLEGANE BOWL’

No fight in season 7: -175

Sandor Clegane (The Hound):  +150

Gregor Clegane (Zombie version of The Mountain):  +350

This wager is similar to the previous one in that I limited the wager to Season 7 and added in another option to make sure we’d get a definitive result—the option that no fight will occur.

WILL DROGON BECOME THE ‘ICE DRAGON’

Yes: +210

No:  -250

This prop gives us a nice and simple binary outcome—either something will happen or it won’t happen.  In this case, my perception of the ‘true odds’ of one outcome (Drogon not becoming the ‘ice dragon’) agrees with the public opinion survey data but to a greater degree of certainty.

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